Peak Confidence?

The latest consumer confidence data came in at the highest level since the 2008/2009 recession.  The last time the Conference Board’s confidence number was above the recent 104.1 reading was back in August of 2007(105.6).  Have we returned to peak confidence?  


Some color:   It is NOT surprising that after 8-years of an economic recovery that consumer confidence has finally recovered all the way back to where it was prior to the last recession. This is what you would expect of during any economic recovery, much less one driven by massive liquidity injections, Government programs to promote consumption and ongoing Central Bank interventions. The fact we are only NOW back at previous highs shows just how fractured the domestic economy was, and likely still is.

Secondly, and most importantly, records are a record for a reason. Record levels denote the point that previously marked the end of a cycle, not the beginning of a new one. This point is often missed by the mainstream media. Record highs of anything, whether it is economic, fundamental or financial data, are warnings signs of late stage events.

Hat tip

20 Straight

That’s how many months in a row Core Durable Goods Orders have declined.  Key bit from   In the last 60 years, the US economy has never suffered such a long contraction in core durable goods orders (20 months) without officially being in recession.

It’s probably nothing… US Durable Goods New Orders Ex Transports YoY down for the 20th straight month…







26 Economic Facts About The Economy

From Michael Snyder:  Many Americans probably hope to see some personal fireworks between the two nominees, but the two candidates have both expressed a desire to focus on substantive issues.  There will likely be quite a few questions about the economy, and without a doubt this is an area where Trump and Clinton have some very sharp differences The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, and if that was true that would seem to favor Clinton.  But is it actually true? 

Here’s a sample of Mr. Snyder’s list:

#18 According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

#19 The rate of homeownership in the U.S. has fallen every single year while Barack Obama has been in the White House.

#20 Approximately one out of every five young adults are currently living with their parents.

And here’s a real stunner:  #9 Barack Obama is on track to be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the U.S. economy grew by at least 3 percent.

The remainder of the list is here:

Hat tip




I have this picture framed on the wall in my office.  Classic….

Manufacturing Outlook Continues To Weaken

Key bit:  For the 21st month in a row, Dallas Fed’s manufacturing outlook remains stuck in contraction (-3.7 vs -2.5 exp). This is the longest streak outside of recession in the survey’s history as new orders cratered (one respondent noting “my order book is abysmal”) and inventories tumbling (not good for GDP).


This data point further undermines the Fed’s need to raise interest rates. 

More here from

A Land Of Opportunity

Great chart from The Visual Capitalist:


Very interesting.  Link is here:


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