The Dow Jones 30 Industrials have traded in a range (from high to low) of 1.4% over the past month. That’s the least volatile in history:
The likely result of this major decline in volatility will be a big expansion of the range. Which direction stocks take as this develops is a tough call.
Hat tip Charlie Bilello
A great article this week from Ben Carlson regarding stock market sell offs and crashes. Key bit: One of the hardest parts about the markets is the fact that you know (or should know) eventually they’ll go down. You just never know how much they’ll drop once they start to fall. For example, I took a look at all of the double digit losses in the S&P 500 from 1928 to 2016 along with a split by different magnitudes:
Breaking stock market losses down even further gives you a sense of how often these losses tend to occur over time. Here are the frequencies in which certain loss thresholds have occurred, on average, in this same time frame:
Read the whole thing: How Market Crashes Happen
Quote of the year: “We’re feeling what not having hope feels like”, Michelle Obama(Dec. 16, 2016)
More here from NFIB.com: Small business optimism rocketed to its highest level since 2004, with a stratospheric 38-point jump in the number of owners who expect better business conditions, according to the monthly National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Index of Small Business Optimism, released today.
“We haven’t seen numbers like this in a long time,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “Small business is ready for a breakout, and that can only mean very good things for the U.S. economy.”
The Index reached 105.8, an increase of 7.4 points. Leading the charge was “Expect Better Business Conditions,” which shot up from a net 12 percent in November to a net 50 percent last month.
Hat tip Brian Gilmartin of fundamentalis.com